Iran Won the War but May Lose the Peace
Iran Won the War but May Lose the Peace Tehran Is Poised to Overplay Its Hand Nate Swanson June 18, 2026 Vessels at the Strait of Hormuz, as seen from Musandam, Oman, June 2026 Reuters NATE SWANSON is a Resident Senior Fellow and Director of the Iran Strategy Project at the Atlantic Council. He served as Director for Iran at the National Security Council from 2022 to 2025. In the spring and summer of 2025, he served on the Trump administration’s Iran negotiating team. When the United States and Israel launched their war on Iran in late February, the regime in Tehran was in an unprecedented position of weakness. It faced existential economic and environmental crises, diminished defensive capabilities, and internal turmoil and external scrutiny following a brutal January crackdown on protests that killed thousands of its own people. But after 40 days of war and two months of shaky cease-fire, the Islamic Republic has emerged intact, emboldened, and armed with a new deterrent...